Conab predicts coffee crop of 54.2 million bags in 2024

Climatic conditions have proved challenging for the coffee sector over the last four years. These include frosts, water restrictions and high temperatures caused by climatic phenomena. In particular, the adverse weather recorded last year and at the end of 2023 had an impact on important coffee-growing regions. Above all, it had a negative impact on average crop yields. As a result, the coffee crop is expected to end at 54.2 million 60-kg bags, as shown in the 4th and final crop survey for the 2024 cycle released on Tuesday (21) by the National Supply Company (Conab).

Primarily, the result is 1.6% below the volume produced in the 2023 harvest. However, when compared to 2022, the last year of the biennial high, there is an increase of 3.3 million bags.

The total area earmarked for coffee growing in the country in 2024 is 2.23 million hectares. Of this, 1.88 million hectares are under production and 353,600 hectares are in the growing phase. However, the national average coffee yield, finalized at 28.8 scs/ha, is 1.9% lower than that obtained in the 2023 harvest.

Adverse weather

As of today, Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee-producing state and responsible for 52% of production, has harvested 28.1 million bags. This is 3.1% less than the total harvested in the previous season. This reduction is due to droughts accompanied by high temperatures during the crop cycle. This was exacerbated in April, when the rains practically ceased throughout the state, with occasional, low-volume rainfall.

Arabica and Conilon

Among the species, the average performance of Arabica showed a small increase of 0.2% due to the adverse weather conditions during crop development, mainly in Minas Gerais. As a result, Arabica production totals 39.6 million bags of processed coffee, an increase of 1.8% on the previous harvest.

As for Conilon, Conab found a 5.9% reduction in average productivity, reaching 39.2 scs/ha, resulting in a harvest of 14.6 million bags. In fact, in Espírito Santo alone, production reached 9.8 million bags, down 3.1% on the volume obtained in 2023. Although the cycle in the state of Espírito Santo had very good production potential at the beginning, the weather conditions between October and December 2023, with episodes of intense heat waves, led to a drop in this potential in the 2024 harvest. Firstly, the coffee crop survey in Espírito Santo is carried out in conjunction with the Capixaba Institute for Research, Technical Assistance and Rural Extension – Incaper. Possible differences with other institutions are always the subject of analysis by Conab.

However, another important Conilon producer, Rondônia, recorded a harvest of just over 2 million bags of coffee, 31.2% down on the previous harvest. As in Espírito Santo, the adverse weather at the end of 2023 also had an impact on the volume harvested last year, in addition to the area adjustment due to mapping.

The market

Brazil exported 50.5 million 60-kilo bags of coffee in 2024, a new record and an increase of 28.8% compared to the previous year. According to consolidated data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). This export generated revenues of US$ 12.3 billion in 2024, the highest figure ever recorded in Brazil. In other words, representing an increase of 52.6% compared to 2023.

The quantity exported can be made up of production stocks from different crop years. In this sense, it is understood that the supply picture cannot only take into account the volume produced in the last harvest.

However, among the reasons that contributed to the growth in the country’s coffee exports in 2024 are the appreciation of the product on the international market and the appreciation of the dollar. Thus, the adjusted global supply and demand scenario influenced the rise in prices of the product last year, even with the recovery of production in some countries. Another factor driving up prices was the occurrence of new climatic adversities in important producing countries, which limits the recovery of future supply.