Coffee crop has lower yield in 2025 and challenges are expected to 2026
During the 7th Forum Café e Clima, experts presented impacts of weather in coffee plantations and forecasts to next year
Cooperativa Regional de Cafeicultores em Guaxupé (Cooxupé) held, on August 14th, the 7th Forum Café e Clima, in Guaxupé – Brazil. At the moment, the event brought detailed analysis of weather conditions registered in the previous crop year, its impacts in coffee production, and the perspectives for the upcoming crop.
Firstly, the Forum was conducted by Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira, coordinator of Cooxupé’s Geoprocessing department. Including Marco Antônio dos Santos, Meteorologist, founder of Rural Clima, and Professor Dr. José Donizeti Alves, from Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA).
Delays, losses and affected quality
Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira has highlighted that current crop started to be formed in 2023. Although, flowering delayed due to late rains, which came by mid-October 2024, after long dry period. In spite, from this month to December 2024, the plantations showed expansion of fruits. Nevertheless, a decrease in rains from Feb to April (phase of bean filling) was harmful to the gain of weight and density of coffee beans.
“The current crop yield is not so good. In other words, the producers need to harvest more coffee to produce the same volume of processed coffee”, he explained.
Yet regarding crop 2025, Guilherme said that the extended water deficit also raised the drop of fruitlets (chumbinhos). A larger percentage of peaberries (moca beans) has also been perceived. According to Teixeira, these types of beans occur when one side of the fruit is fertilized, or when one of them lose energy to other parts of the plant.
Crop 2026 at Cooxupé’s action area
The scenario is challenging for 2026. Teixeira emphasized that the delay in rains has reduced the growth of branches, which limited producing potential. Dry-farming coffee plantations (not irrigated) have registered, in average, 11 branch bark ridges against 14 in irrigated plantations.
In addition, events of hailstorms and frosts affected areas in Media Mogiana in São Paulo State, and South of Minas Gerais. Yet, crop 2025 is still happening in certain regions (august 2025). As Teixeira states, picked fruits present flower buds that might bear crop 2026.
“Therefore, it is early to talk about volume, but impacts are assured”, he highlighted.
Climate scenario is favourable to 2027
Lastly, Teixeira commented that the scenario for 2027 tends to be more encouraging. The forecast of early rains, contrary to 2024, may promote a longer and more productive vegetative cycle. Albeit, climate conditions would still have to stay stable prior to confirm such projections.
Weather forecast and influence of La Niña
The meteorologist Marco Antônio dos Santos, from Rural Clima, noted that the cycle 2025/26 will be more favorable than the previous one. In 2024, as he points, the plantations faced more than 120 days of drought, with irregular rains and high temperatures.
In contrast, for 2025, the rain season is expected to come nearly one month earlier than 2024, still in September. “That might create an ideal moist environment for flowering”, he explained.
Besides, dos Santos remarked the forecast for lower temperatures with higher relative humidity, which is positive for post-flowering development. The possible confirmation of La Niña, in November, tends to enhance the progress of the crop.
However, the expert warns: “With greater volume of rains, especially in South and Southeast of Minas Gerais and Mogiana, in São Paulo State, multiple flowerings may occur. This wouldn’t directly affect productivity, but would be harmful to quality of coffee”, he noted.
Physiological management: attention to the four phases of coffee
Professor Dr. José Donizeti Alves, from Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), stressed that the crop year demands attention in four essential phases: post-flowering development, formation of fruitlets, expansion of fruits and bean filling.
In line with his points, the conditions for the new agricultural cycle – from July to the end of harvest period – are more favorable than in previous year. Nevertheless, Dr. Alves warned that the weather may suddenly change and undermine one or more of those phases.
“Even with positive forecasts, the producers may act preventively, and be attentive during all phases”, he stated. By these means, Dr. Alves recommends the anticipation of harvest management actions.
The Professor affirms that each phase must be considered as a distinct crop. “If the producer is prepared, even in face of bad weather conditions, he/she can reduce losses,” he illustrated.
Furthermore, he pointed the deepening of root system, reaching 50 to 100 inches of depth. “This increases the resistance to drought and decreases water stress, creating a virtuous cycle,” completed.
Strategy for 2026
Professor Dr. Alves reinforced the importance of preventive and sustainable management for 2026. Besides, he stands for practices that strengthen the coffee trees in face of weather oscillation, and guarantee the continuity of production even during the most difficult harvest periods.
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