Coffee production estimated at 54.36 million bags in 2023, according to Conab

With more than 95% of coffee already harvested at the end of August throughout Brazil, the 2023 crop is estimated at 54.36 million bags. In this sense, the volume represents a growth of 6.8% in relation to the harvest recorded in 2022. As well as being a record for a year with a negative biennial, this is the third largest crop ever harvested in the country. In other words, it is second only to 2018 and 2020, both positive biennial years.

First of all, the data is from the 3rd crop survey, released on September 20 by the National Supply Company (Conab). Thus, if the estimate for this year is compared with the volume harvested in the 2021 crop, the last year of the negative biennial, the increase is as much as 13.9%.

“The performance of Minas Gerais, the country’s main coffee-growing state, stands out. Even with the effects of the negative biennial on many of the producing regions, production grew by 29.5%,” says the company’s Crop Monitoring Manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos.

Conilon coffee

However, the opposite scenario is found in conilon plantations. Therefore, an 11% drop in the harvest is expected when compared to the excellent result obtained in 2022. An estimated 16.2 million bags are expected to be harvested this year.

“This result is mainly due to the 10.8% drop in productivity. Therefore, it reflects the somewhat adverse weather conditions recorded in the main conilon producing state, Espírito Santo, which impacted part of the crops, especially in the early stages of the cycle. This loss was not offset by the expected gains in Rondônia and Mato Grosso,” explains Vasconcellos.

Area

The document also shows that the total area destined for coffee growing in the country in 2023, for arabica and conilon, totals 2.24 million hectares. With 1.88 million hectares in production, up 1.9% on the previous year. And 362.5 thousand hectares of newly-planted coffee trees, minus 9.3%.

Market

From January to August this year, Brazil exported 22.9 million 60 kg bags, according to consolidated data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

Primarily, the volume shipped represents a drop of 10.8% compared to the same period last year. Firstly, the negative performance in 2023 was influenced by the restriction of stocks in the first months of the season. This followed harvests with limited production in 2021 and 2022.

Only in August that the external sales scenario became more favorable. Last month, Brazil exported around 3.69 million 60 kg bags of coffee in August 2023. This represents an increase of 37.6% compared to the previous month and 38.5% compared to the same period in 2022, according to the MDIC.

After a drop in the amount of coffee exported in 2021 and 2022, the increase in domestic supply in 2023 can result in a recovery in exports in the current harvest. As was the case in August, exports are likely to remain strong in the coming months,” says Gabriel Rabello, Conab’s Fibers and Staple Foods manager. Finally, for more details on the country’s coffee harvest, you can access the tables and the complete Bulletin of the 3rd Coffee Harvest Survey.